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I get it. He’s thrown eight starts, and six of those were horrible, based on runs allowed. He got legitimately bombed last night, against the team’s biggest rival. Lots of people were calling for him to get released, and he’s plenty old enough to think that he may actually be done.

But you know what? He’s not done, and the Red Sox may end up feeling really stupid about this one.

Smoltz has gone 40 innings; he’s struck out 33 and walked 9. That’s 18% and 5% of the batters he’s faced, respectively. His BABIP is .390, and his HR/FB 14.8%. Both are career highs by a mile. Pitch f/x doesn’t see any major differences in his velocity or movement, and his LD% (if you’re into that) is right in line with his career norms.

PECOTA predicts a 3.92 ERA for the rest of the season, and ZIPS says 3.97. I see no reason to disagree. Someone will pick him up — for the league minimum, no less — and that team could end up feeling very, very lucky.

Feedback? Write a comment, or e-mail the author at shawn(AT)squawkingbaseball.com

3 Existing Comments

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  1. on August 7th at 08:37 pm
    Jeremy said:

    I think Squawking Baseball celebrates its 1st birthday today or soon (I’m kind of a stalker). What are you doing to celebrate? Coming out to San Francisco to visit your favorite Californian?

    About this Smoltz character…can he hit? The Giants can always use another bat in the lineup.

    Mazel tov, Shawn!

  2. on August 8th at 12:10 am
    JE said:

    You seem to think that he won’t end up in Pawtucket, Shawn. How come? Am I missing something?

  3. on August 8th at 11:10 am
    Shawn Hoffman said:

    JE — it’s possible, but I think there will be sufficient interest elsewhere that Pawtucket would have to be what Smoltz himself specifically wants in order for that to happen.

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