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Wednesday Notes

posted by Shawn, on November 21st, 2007 at 08:06 am, in category Uncategorized

Let’s get right to it:

  • Warren Buffett is right and wrong. It’s true that baseball teams don’t make the kind of income an investor would normally expect from similarly valued companies. They are also terribly unpredictable businesses, largely dependent on the team’s success. However, as I’ve written a number of times, baseball owners make their money on capital gains, not operating profits. With a perpetually limited supply, franchise values will almost never go down in the long run. It’s a different kind of business, but certainly not a bad one.
  • After re-reading the transcript of Barry Bonds’s grand jury testimony a couple of times, I truly do not believe he will be convicted. He was clearly well prepared (given that he was not going to admit using steroids, nor plead the fifth), as most of his answers had no substance. This is from the original San Franciscle Chronicle report:

    Asked about the endurance-boosting agent known as EPO, Bonds said, “I couldn’t even pronounce it.”

    Queried about insulin, which also can have a steroid-like effect, Bonds said, “Insulin? I’m not a diabetic.”

  • I’m having trouble making sense of the Angels-White Sox trade, at least until one or both make a few more moves that perhaps explain their overall strategies. I’m not a big fan of Jon Garland, but I will admit that his ERA has been significantly lower than his peripherals would suggest in three of the past four years. At the same time, Cabrera definitely has his uses, but the White Sox are still a good way away from being a contender. Trading one soon-to-be free agent doesn’t change their outlook in the short-term or the long-term.
  • I’ve been very critical of the Mets, and their fans mostly agree. Luis Castillo isn’t quite a disaster at second base, but his knees clearly are. He may not last through 2008, let alone 2011, the final year of his new contract. On a side not, Johnny Estrada may be worse than Yorvit Torrealba.
  • Awards don’t have much real significance, so I usually leave them be. Just to recap what you already know: the AL MVP voters got it right, the NL MVP voters got it wrong.

Feedback? Write a comment, or e-mail the author at shawn(AT)squawkingbaseball.com


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  1. on November 23rd at 05:26 am
    melissa said:

    Federal Prosecutors have a conviction rate in excess of 94%. I find it improbable of them to indict someone with such a high profile if they do not have the proof to get a conviction. They know Bonds will have the best representation money can buy and surely anticipate a vigorous defense. They also took a longer than average amount of time investigating before they launched the indictment.
    As for the White Sox, Kenny Williams believes that he has young arms that can replace Garland. That certainly remains to be seen. He seems to believe that Cabrera will strengthen his defense as well as his lineup. Ozzie Guillen coached Cabrera in Montreal and loves the idea of having him as a clubhouse leader and an example of the type of all-around player he values. Kenny seems to believe that he is a centerfielder and a couple of decent middle relievers away from contending. They are adding Scott Linebrink who should be an upgrade over what they had last year. Don’t be surprised if he makes a deal to acquire Coco Crisp or Carl Crawford considering the White Sox will not likely outbid anyone for Rowand or Andruw Jones. They did win 90 games in ‘06 and he believes they aren’t that far from contending in what might be the toughest division in baseball. He admits he has moves to make but Williams has shown in the past that he will make aggressive moves to try and win immediately. It paid off in ‘05 but if they don’t win in ‘08 he will being looking at an aging core of Thome, Konerko & Dye and a minor league system that has been depleted by some of his previous moves.