How much does early attendance matter, and when should teams (and MLB) start getting worried? Hint: in a month or two.

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I should have a full analysis up on Prospectus on Sunday, but a few off-the-cuff reactions:

• The valuations are way too low, assuming they’re trying to estimate what-if-they-sold prices. The Padres sold for $500 million a year ago, and are only valued at $408m, while the Rangers could sell for even more than that (including debt), and Forbes has them valued at $451m. In fact, the Phillies and Angels are valued at $537m and $521m, respectively, and I don’t know who’s arguing that those teams wouldn’t sell for more than the Padres and Rangers. I haven’t finished the articles yet, but this seems like such a glaring error that I’d expect Forbes to account for it.
• The Yankees aren’t twice as valuable as the Red Sox. They are worth significantly more, as they do more revenue and have more valuable media properties, and probably have more growth potential in a healthy economy. But in practical terms, if both teams were sold, I would guess the difference would probably be closer to 25-50%, as opposed to 100%.
• The Pirates are not the least valuable team in the sport. Pittsburgh people support good teams in very large numbers, as we’ve seen with the Penguins the last four years; if the Pirates can ever get it together, their upside is far higher than the A’s and Marlins, among others.
• Note that both the Yankees and Red Sox were solidly profitable. This is very rare, particularly for the Yankees, and I’m curious whether Forbes changed up their methodology somewhat, as their old numbers never really passed the smell test.
• The Marlins were once again the most profitable team. Without even looking, I’m positive there were articles in the local papers bashing them today.
• Off the top of my head, I don’t think I remember a year where 28 teams were profitable, and only one lost more than $1m. That’s pretty amazing given that we were looking at Armageddon last spring, and, if true, is a credit to Bud and company, who hammered home the message of fiscal responsibility over and over and over again before last season.

More coming this weekend.

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Some predictions for the coming year in baseball’s business.

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